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Tuesday, May 19th, 2026
The 56 Maple Daily Brief is a curated macro and markets summary built for private equity investors and operators. It tracks 40+ key indicators across rates, credit, equities, currencies, commodities, flows, and real estate. Highlighting what moved and why. Delivered each day with AI-powered interpretation and relevant analysis via the lastest Anthropic Model.
AI-generated synthesis · claude-sonnet-4-20250514 · Tuesday, May 19th, 2026
Bonds
The yield curve steepened sharply as 5Y and 10Y yields surged 21 bps and 20 bps respectively over the past week, while the 2Y held steady with only a 3 bps decline. The 2s10s spread expanded to 54 bps, a 17% widening that signals the market is pricing in persistent inflation pressures with Fed policy remaining restrictive longer than previously expected. Real rates have spiked 9% in just one week to 2.13%, creating a meaningful headwind for risk assets. Conviction: HIGH.
Credit
HY spreads widened modestly to 2.83% while credit ETFs declined across the board, with HYG down 0.7% and LQD falling 1.3% over the past week. The HYG/LQD ratio has risen 0.7% weekly, indicating relative outperformance by high yield versus investment grade as duration risk outweighs credit risk in the current environment. Credit markets remain stable with no distress signals evident. Conviction: MODERATE.
Private Credit
BDC prices continue deteriorating with BIZD down 2.1% this week and 9.6% year-to-date, while OBDC fell 1.1% weekly despite a modest daily bounce. The divergence between BKLN (-0.2% weekly) and SRLN (-0.2% weekly) has narrowed, suggesting both active and passive loan strategies are facing similar headwinds from rising rates. Direct lending valuations are under pressure from higher discount rates rather than credit deterioration, with the sector trading at significant discounts to reported NAVs. Conviction: MODERATE.
Equities
Equity breadth remains weak with equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the cap-weighted index by 0.5% this week, while small caps in the Russell 2000 fell 3.4%. The VIX remains subdued at 18, suggesting complacency despite the rate volatility. Financials are notably weak, down 0.9% weekly and 6.5% year-to-date, reflecting concerns about net interest margin compression and credit quality in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Conviction: MODERATE.
Commodities
Oil retreated 4.3% today after a strong weekly gain of 1.8%, while copper fell 4.5% weekly as industrial metals signal growth concerns. Agricultural commodities continue surging with wheat up 11.9% monthly and soybeans gaining 3.8%, suggesting supply-side inflation pressures persist. The commodity complex reflects a bifurcated outlook with energy and agriculture strength contrasting against industrial weakness. Conviction: MODERATE.
Flows / Liquidity
The Fed balance sheet expanded 0.5% weekly to $6.7 trillion while money market fund assets grew 2.0% weekly, indicating liquidity remains ample but investors are parking cash in safe havens. Initial jobless claims remain low at 211k, supporting the Fed's restrictive stance. Liquidity conditions support risk assets but rate volatility is creating defensive positioning. Conviction: MODERATE.
Today's Environment
Transition regime characterized by competing forces of persistent inflation expectations driving rate volatility against still-supportive liquidity conditions and stable credit fundamentals. The sharp steepening of the yield curve signals the market is recalibrating expectations for Fed policy duration.
Practical Investment Implications
Favor floating rate assets and shorter duration credit over long-term fixed income. Real estate and rate-sensitive growth equities face headwinds while value and financials may benefit from steeper curves. Private credit offers attractive entry points but requires patience for rate volatility to subside.
One Key Change to Watch
A sustained move in 10Y real rates above 2.25% would signal a regime shift toward restrictive financial conditions that could trigger broader risk asset repricing.
Bonds
2s10s Yield Curve Spread — up 17.4%
How soaring Treasury yields could impact your finances — Yahoo Finance, 7h ago
FX Daily: Bearish yield curve steepening hits risk assets — ING THINK economic and financial analysis | ING THINK, Yesterday
Japan Yield Curve Pressure Threatens Global Carry Trades — StoneX, Yesterday
US Equities
Russell 2000 — down 3.4%
US stocks fall as bond yields rise; China industrial output and retail sales slow — equiti.com, 17h ago
Should Investors Raise Portfolio Allocations to Consumer Staples ETFs? — TradingView, 6h ago
Dow Jones futures: Trump Iran delay saves Dow, but SanDisk, Bloom Energy, AI leaders sell off — MSN, 21h ago
Currencies & Gold
Bitcoin — down $4,098.95 (5.1%)
Bitcoin price outlook: Can BTC recover $80,000 after selloff? — TradingView, 6h ago
Bitcoin Market Structure Weakens: Why the $5,000 Drop Could Be Just the Beginning — Yahoo Finance, 8h ago
Why is the crypto market falling as Bitcoin drops to $76,000? — Economies.com, 9h ago
Commodities
Silver — down $11.16 (13.1%)
Silver’s Selloff Does Not Fix the Ore Grade Problem — Investing.com, 2h ago
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 as it holds above support while EUR/GBP and the price of silver drop. — ig.com, 13h ago
Why did gold, silver prices fall today? 5 key reasons behind Friday's sharp fall — MSN, 13h ago
Institutional Flows
Initial Jobless Claims — down 3.2%
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast for Today, Tomorrow, Next Week, and the Next 30 Days — LiteFinance, 2h ago
Bitcoin price outlook: Can BTC recover $80,000 after selloff? — Invezz, 5h ago
Treasury yields move higher as crude oil pares losses amid US.-Iran developments — MSN, 13h ago
Real Estate Proxies
Housing Starts — up 18.1%
The Outlook for Housing Affordability — The American Action Forum, 11h ago
Housing Data Enters the Chat: NAHB, HD, TOL — TradingView, 7h ago
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Persist — Advisor Perspectives, Yesterday
^IRX · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.58% | +1bps | -3bps | -2bps | +4bps |
As of May 19, 2026
Yield on short-term U.S. government debt, primarily driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy over the next 1-2 years.
This is the market's real-time view of where the Fed is headed; when it rises, the market is pricing tighter policy or delayed cuts, and when it falls, it reflects expectations of easing or economic slowdown, making it one of the most important forward-looking policy indicators.
^FVX · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.33% | +5bps | +21bps | +48bps | +59bps |
As of May 19, 2026
Intermediate-term Treasury yield that reflects both expected Fed policy and medium-term economic conditions.
This sits between short-term policy and long-term growth expectations, so changes here often signal a shift in the market's base-case economic outlook rather than just near-term Fed moves.
^TNX · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.67% | +4bps | +20bps | +42bps | +48bps |
As of May 19, 2026
Benchmark long-term interest rate reflecting expectations for growth, inflation, and risk over a full economic cycle.
This is the most important rate for asset pricing; rising yields generally indicate stronger growth or higher inflation expectations and tighten financial conditions, while falling yields signal slowing growth, disinflation, or risk aversion, directly impacting valuations across equities and real estate.
^TYX · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.18% | +0.7% | +3.0% | +6.1% | +6.5% |
As of May 19, 2026
Long-duration yield reflecting long-term economic expectations, inflation risk, and fiscal sustainability.
Movements here are less about near-term cycles and more about structural views on inflation and government debt, making it particularly relevant for long-duration assets and understanding long-term capital costs.
TLT · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83.02 | $-0.54 (-0.6%) | $-1.97 (-2.3%) | $-3.71 (-4.3%) | $-2.73 (-3.2%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF representing long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, inversely related to long-term yields.
This acts as a real-time proxy for long-duration risk; when TLT falls, it indicates rising long-term rates and tightening financial conditions, and when it rises, it reflects declining yields and easing conditions, often coinciding with risk-off environments.
HYG · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79.35 | $-0.19 (-0.2%) | $-0.52 (-0.7%) | $-0.81 (-1.0%) | +$0.27 (+0.3%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF representing below-investment-grade corporate debt, combining credit risk and interest rate exposure.
This is a key proxy for credit risk appetite; rising prices suggest easy financial conditions and strong risk tolerance, while falling prices indicate widening credit spreads and increasing concern about defaults or economic stress.
LQD · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $107.12 | $-0.54 (-0.5%) | $-1.44 (-1.3%) | $-2.48 (-2.3%) | $-1.38 (-1.3%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF representing high-quality corporate bonds with lower credit risk than high yield.
This reflects both interest rate movements and corporate credit quality; weakness here can signal tightening financial conditions even before equity markets react, particularly if driven by spread widening rather than rates.
DFF · FRED · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.63% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
As of May 18, 2026
The actual overnight rate at which banks lend reserves to each other, reflecting current Fed policy.
This is the anchor of the entire rate system; changes here directly influence borrowing costs across the economy and serve as the baseline against which all other yields are evaluated.
T10Y2Y · FRED · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54% | +0.0% | +17.4% | +0.0% | -25.0% |
As of May 19, 2026
Difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, measuring the slope of the yield curve.
This is a core economic signal; an inverted curve (negative spread) suggests restrictive policy and elevated recession risk, while a steepening curve typically reflects either improving growth expectations or easing financial conditions.
T5YIE · FRED · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.66% | -1.1% | -1.1% | +3.5% | +16.7% |
As of May 19, 2026
Market-implied average inflation over the next 5 years derived from nominal vs TIPS yields.
This reflects near-to-medium-term inflation expectations; rising breakevens indicate increasing inflation expectations, while falling breakevens suggest disinflation or weakening demand.
T10YIE · FRED · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.49% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +6.0% | +10.7% |
As of May 19, 2026
Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 10 years.
This provides a longer-term view of inflation credibility; stable levels suggest anchored expectations, while large moves signal shifts in confidence around long-term price stability.
DFII10 · FRED · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.13% | +1.4% | +9.2% | +12.1% | +9.8% |
As of May 18, 2026
Inflation-adjusted yield on 10-year Treasuries, representing the real cost of capital.
This is one of the most important variables for asset valuation; rising real rates tighten financial conditions and pressure risk assets, while falling real rates support higher valuations and economic activity.
BAMLH0A0HYM2 · FRED · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.83% | +1.1% | +1.4% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
As of May 18, 2026
Option-adjusted spread of US high yield corporate bonds over Treasuries.
The price of credit risk. Below 3% = euphoria, risk underpriced. 3-5% = normal. Above 5% = stress building. Above 8% = crisis-level credit distress.
RSP · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201.62 | $-1.18 (-0.6%) | $-2.19 (-1.1%) | $-2.18 (-1.1%) | +$9.58 (+5.0%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, removing concentration in mega-cap stocks.
This helps assess market breadth; if it lags the standard index, it indicates narrow leadership, while outperformance signals broad participation across stocks.
XLF · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $51.10 | $-0.64 (-1.2%) | $-0.48 (-0.9%) | $-1.53 (-2.9%) | $-3.55 (-6.5%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF tracking U.S. financial institutions including banks and insurers.
Financials are highly sensitive to rates and credit conditions; strength suggests healthy lending and economic expansion, while weakness can signal tightening credit or stress in the financial system.
^GSPC · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,353.61 | -0.7% | -0.6% | +3.4% | +7.2% |
As of May 19, 2026
Market-cap-weighted index of 500 large U.S. companies.
This is the primary benchmark for U.S. equities; movements reflect a combination of earnings expectations, interest rates, and risk appetite, making it a broad indicator of financial conditions.
^IXIC · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25,870.71 | -0.8% | -0.8% | +6.0% | +11.3% |
As of May 19, 2026
Index heavily weighted toward technology and growth-oriented companies.
This is highly sensitive to interest rates and liquidity; outperformance typically signals strong risk appetite and falling discount rates, while underperformance often reflects tightening conditions.
^DJI · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49,363.88 | -0.6% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +2.0% |
As of May 19, 2026
Price-weighted index of 30 large, established U.S. companies.
This tends to reflect more traditional, cyclical sectors and can provide a view into industrial and economic sensitivity relative to growth-heavy indices.
^RUT · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,747.07 | -1.0% | -3.4% | -1.6% | +9.5% |
As of May 19, 2026
Index of small-cap U.S. companies.
This is a proxy for domestic economic strength and credit sensitivity; outperformance suggests strong growth and easy financial conditions, while weakness indicates stress in smaller, more leveraged businesses.
^VIX · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.06 | +1.3% | +0.4% | -4.3% | +24.5% |
As of May 19, 2026
Implied volatility of S&P 500 options, often called the "fear index."
Elevated levels indicate market stress and uncertainty, while low levels suggest complacency and stable conditions, making it a key barometer of risk sentiment.
EURUSD=X · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1612 | -0.0% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -1.2% |
As of May 19, 2026
Exchange rate between the euro and U.S. dollar.
Reflects relative economic strength and monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe, often serving as a proxy for global macro positioning.
JPY=X · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 159.0310 | +0.1% | +1.1% | -0.1% | +1.5% |
As of May 19, 2026
Exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.
Highly sensitive to interest rate differentials; a rising pair typically reflects higher U.S. yields and global carry trades, while declines often occur during risk-off periods.
GBPUSD=X · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3401 | +0.7% | -1.5% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
As of May 19, 2026
Exchange rate between the British pound and U.S. dollar.
Reflects UK-specific economic conditions and policy relative to the U.S., with sensitivity to global risk sentiment.
GC=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4,485.40 | $-67.10 (-1.5%) | $-192.20 (-4.1%) | $-321.20 (-6.7%) | +$171.00 (+4.0%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Precious metal used as a store of value.
Typically rises during periods of declining real rates, inflation concerns, or geopolitical risk, serving as a hedge against monetary instability.
BTC-USD · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76,952.30 | $-1.88 (-0.0%) | $-4,098.95 (-5.1%) | +$601.62 (+0.8%) | $-11,779.69 (-13.3%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Digital asset often viewed as a speculative or alternative store of value.
Highly sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite; strong performance often coincides with easy financial conditions and speculative behavior.
CL=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104.03 | $-4.63 (-4.3%) | +$1.85 (+1.8%) | +$14.42 (+16.1%) | +$46.71 (+81.5%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Benchmark price for U.S. crude oil.
Rising oil prices can signal strong demand or supply constraints and tend to be inflationary, while falling prices often indicate weakening global growth.
NG=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.12 | +$0.09 (+3.0%) | +$0.27 (+9.6%) | +$0.43 (+15.9%) | $-0.50 (-13.9%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Price of natural gas, a key energy input.
Often more supply-driven but still relevant for inflation and industrial activity, particularly in energy-sensitive regions.
HG=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6.19 | $-0.08 (-1.2%) | $-0.29 (-4.5%) | +$0.16 (+2.6%) | +$0.55 (+9.8%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Industrial metal widely used in construction and manufacturing.
Often called "Dr. Copper," it is a leading indicator of global economic activity, with rising prices signaling growth and falling prices indicating slowdown.
SI=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $73.97 | $-3.10 (-4.0%) | $-11.16 (-13.1%) | $-5.98 (-7.5%) | +$3.41 (+4.8%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Silver futures. Industrial metal and precious metal hybrid.
Dual nature: industrial demand (solar, electronics) and safe-haven store of value. Outperforming gold = industrial optimism. Underperforming = pure fear bid favoring gold.
ZS=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,210.25 | $-2.75 (-0.2%) | $-3.25 (-0.3%) | +$44.50 (+3.8%) | +$180.75 (+17.6%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Soybean futures. Agricultural bellwether and food inflation proxy.
Key input for animal feed and cooking oil. Rising = food inflation pressure, supply disruption (weather, trade policy). Falling = bumper crops or demand destruction.
ZW=F · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $668.00 | +$3.50 (+0.5%) | +$3.00 (+0.5%) | +$71.00 (+11.9%) | +$161.50 (+31.9%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Wheat futures. Global food security and geopolitical risk indicator.
Staple food commodity sensitive to weather, war, and trade restrictions. Spikes signal food inflation risk and geopolitical supply disruption.
WALCL · FRED · Weekly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,728,502.00 | +0.3% | +0.5% | +2.6% | +2.4% |
As of May 13, 2026
Federal Reserve total assets in millions. Proxy for liquidity injections.
Rising = Fed expanding balance sheet, adding liquidity, supportive for risk assets. Falling = quantitative tightening, draining liquidity, headwind for all asset prices.
ICSA · FRED · Weekly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 211,000.00 | +6.0% | -3.2% | -5.8% | +1.9% |
As of May 9, 2026
Weekly new unemployment insurance claims in thousands.
The fastest labor market pulse. Below 225K = tight labor market. Rising trend above 300K = layoffs accelerating, recession risk climbing.
TIP · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110.11 | $-0.37 (-0.3%) | $-1.01 (-0.9%) | $-0.74 (-0.7%) | +$0.80 (+0.7%) |
As of May 19, 2026
TIPS ETF. Proxy for inflation protection demand.
Rising = investors buying inflation protection, real yields falling. Falling = inflation fears fading or real yields rising and punishing duration.
WRMFNS · FRED · Weekly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,298.20 | +0.3% | +2.0% | +3.9% | +1.8% |
As of April 6, 2026
Retail money market fund assets in billions. Cash on the sidelines.
Record highs = massive cash parked defensively, potential fuel for future equity rally. Falling = money moving out of cash into risk assets, bullish rotation underway.
VNQ · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95.28 | +$0.27 (+0.3%) | $-1.41 (-1.5%) | $-1.75 (-1.8%) | +$7.70 (+8.8%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF tracking publicly traded U.S. real estate investment trusts.
Reflects the impact of rates and economic conditions on real estate valuations, often acting as a liquid proxy for private market trends.
XHB · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94.86 | $-1.55 (-1.6%) | $-5.11 (-5.1%) | $-14.54 (-13.3%) | $-9.37 (-9.0%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF tracking U.S. homebuilding companies.
Highly sensitive to mortgage rates and housing demand, providing a forward-looking view on residential real estate activity.
MBB · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $93.08 | $-0.41 (-0.4%) | $-1.14 (-1.2%) | $-2.04 (-2.1%) | $-0.74 (-0.8%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF representing mortgage-backed securities.
Reflects conditions in mortgage financing markets; weakness often indicates widening spreads and tighter housing finance conditions.
MORTGAGE30US · FRED · Weekly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.36% | -0.2% | -0.2% | +2.4% | +3.2% |
As of May 14, 2026
Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average.
The rate that drives housing affordability. Above 7% = demand destruction. Below 6% = refis restart and buyers return. Every 1% move reprices monthly payments ~10%.
HOUST · FRED · Monthly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,502.00 | +10.8% | +18.1% | +13.2% | +7.4% |
As of March 1, 2026
New residential construction starts in thousands of units.
Leading indicator of housing supply and builder confidence. Rising = builders see demand. Falling = rates or costs choking new construction.
EXHOSLUSM495S · FRED · Monthly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,020,000.00 | +0.2% | -1.7% | N/A | +0.0% |
As of April 1, 2026
Existing home sales in millions of units annualized.
Volume indicator for the resale market. Falling = lock-in effect as owners hold low-rate mortgages. Rising = rate relief thawing the frozen housing market.
CSUSHPINSA · FRED · Monthly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 327.31 | +0.3% | -0.5% | +1.1% | +0.3% |
As of February 1, 2026
National home price index. The definitive measure of US house prices.
The gold standard for home price trends. Rising = wealth effect for homeowners, affordability squeeze for buyers. Falling = negative equity risk, consumer retrenchment.
PERMIT · FRED · Monthly
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,363.00 | -11.4% | -3.4% | -6.7% | -1.7% |
As of March 1, 2026
New privately-owned housing units authorized in thousands.
Leading indicator — permits precede starts by 1-2 months. Rising = pipeline building, builder optimism. Falling = future supply contraction ahead.
BKLN · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.50 | $-0.02 (-0.1%) | $-0.04 (-0.2%) | +$0.03 (+0.2%) | +$0.02 (+0.1%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Tracks leveraged loans (floating-rate senior secured). Core of private credit collateral.
The canary in private credit. Falling prices = stress in leveraged borrowers and CLOs. Floating-rate means rising rates hit these borrowers first.
BIZD · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.41 | $-0.11 (-0.9%) | $-0.26 (-2.1%) | $-0.77 (-5.8%) | $-1.31 (-9.6%) |
As of May 19, 2026
ETF of publicly traded BDCs — the closest public proxy for private direct lending.
BDCs are the public window into private credit. Falling BIZD = rising defaults or NAV markdowns in direct lending portfolios. Discount to NAV widens when credit stress builds.
OBDC · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.05 | +$0.04 (+0.4%) | $-0.12 (-1.1%) | $-0.73 (-6.2%) | $-1.08 (-8.9%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Largest publicly traded direct lending BDC. Blue Owl's flagship private credit vehicle.
OBDC is the single best public read on private credit health. Price vs NAV discount signals market confidence in direct lending book values. Widening discount = market doubts marks on underlying loans.
SRLN · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40.49 | $-0.02 (-0.0%) | $-0.09 (-0.2%) | +$0.18 (+0.5%) | +$0.15 (+0.4%) |
As of May 19, 2026
Actively managed leveraged loan fund. Complements BKLN with a manager-selected view.
When SRLN diverges from BKLN, active managers are seeing something passive indexing misses. Watch for widening gap during stress.
HYG · YAHOO · Daily
| Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7408 | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +1.6% |
As of May 19, 2026
Ratio of high-yield to investment-grade bond ETFs. Proxy for credit spread direction.
Rising ratio = credit spreads tightening, risk appetite healthy. Falling ratio = spreads widening, stress migrating from junk toward quality.
56 Maple is a Chicago-based family office and investment platform focused on long-term capital deployment across real estate, private operating companies, as well as sponsor-led transactions. Rooted in a multigenerational real estate background, the firm partners with operators and sponsors to invest in cash-flowing assets and businesses with strong fundamentals. 56 Maple emphasizes disciplined underwriting, aligned incentives, and a long-term ownership mindset.
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